UFC 295: Procházka vs. Pereira

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@Tapology 

Steve erceg looks like krash bandicoot

https://mmawise.substack.com/p/new-vidieo-top-3-picks-for-ufc-295

Man Castañeda looked awful. I don't like that Aspinall is coming in heavy either.

What? I thought Castañeda looked normal. Just a little drawn out around the face if anything, which isn't too shocking.

Glossy skin, deep dark circles under the eyes. Despondent look on his face and acting confused. Could have looked better if you ask me. Also the weird catchweight request. I'm wondering if he's sick again.

I think you're overthinking it man, lol.

I'll never take weigh in looks at face value after seeing guys like Max Holloway look near death so many times and then fight like nothing happened.

Or Aldo, known for his rough weight cuts to FW, moving down to BW and looking no worse for wear. 

As someone who was worried about the CW he looked fine to me. The fact he weighed in under the cw limit makes me think he just had it as a precaution because the fight got moved. Castaneda never has easy cuts to 135 (iirc he was last to weigh in for his last fight) but as long as he’s not sick again I think his cardio will be fine 

* Edited at 11.10.2023, 1:56 PM ET *

The prelims for this event will be broadcast live on ESPNews.

👍🙏

I'm very, very torn on Frevola vs. BSD. Way more torn than I thought I'd be.

I put a sprinkle on Frevola by KO +400 and stopped worrying about it. I think BSD is a deserved favorite but you know both these guys will get hit hard and that someone is getting knocked out.

Anything can happen and the DosAnt fight took some off his lifespan for sure, funny he was rocking Dos right after all the "Stop the fight" talk.

New York commission has a terrible reputation with cuts and stopping fights. Hopefully they chill tf out 

Procházka vs. Pereira
Jiří Procházka, SUB, R2
Jiri Rd 3 sub

Pavlovich vs. Aspinall
Tom Aspinall, SUB, R2
Aspinall Rd 2 sub

Andrade vs. Dern
Mackenzie Dern, SUB, R2
Dern sub rd 2/3

Frevola vs. Saint-Denis
Benoit Saint-Denis, SUB, R2
BSD by dec only is dec parlay piece. Also BSD by sub rd 2/3 could hit

Sabatini vs. Lopes
Pat Sabatini, DEC
Sabatini by Dec & Lopes by Finish

Erceg vs. Costa
Steve Erceg, DEC
Tight ish fight.

Ricci vs. Godinez
Tabatha Ricci, DEC
Prob going to start Rd 2 as parlay piece. Ricci & Ricci by dec

Rębecki vs. Roberts
Mateusz Rębecki, TKO, R2
Sprinkle on Roosevelt cause huge dawg

Sadykhov vs. Borshchev
Nazim Sadykhov, SUB, R3
ITD (as semi long shot parlay piece) ITD, Borschchev KO rd 2/3

Gordon vs. Madsen
Mark Madsen
Prob starting rd 2 as parlay piece. Madsen & sprinkle Madsen by KO. However, bet the splits too. tight fight

Kang vs. Castañeda
Kyung Ho Kang, DEC
FGTD & Kang by Dec. Bet the splits

Van vs. Borjas
Joshua Van, DEC
Prob starting rd 2 as parlay piece (long shot). Van by dec. Bet the splits

Buzukja vs. Emmers
Jamall Emmers, DEC
Prob going to start Rd 2 as parlay (long shot piece). FGTD, Jamall by dec. Bet the splits

I doubt Pavlovich had a weight cut unless he’s the dumbest person ever, he’ll weigh in at 259lb

Last fight Pavlovich weighed 260lbs or so, he didn't cut weight lol.

Only a handful of current HWs cut weight, and they usually have love handles.

¨There's gonna be a ceremonial weigh in right?

That staredown between Pereira and Jiri was 🔥🔥

UFC-295 - Breakdown-1/2 - Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira - 

This is based on what they have done so far rather than what I think they will do. I came up with this after watching their fights and checking their stats.
This is my simplified breakdown on this fight - 
The scores are based on how good they are vs the opponent. Jiri - 10 grappling doesn't mean he is an elite grappler, it just means he is better than  Pereira.
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Striking = Pereira - 10

Technical Striking = Jiri 8-10 Pereira
Power Striking = Jiri 10-10 Pereira
Creative Striking = Jiri 10-9 Pereira
Striking Defense = Jiri 8-10 Pereira
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Wrestling/Grappling = Jiri - 10

Offensive = Jiri 10-8 Pereira
Defensive = Jiri 10-9 Pereira
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Fight IQ = Jiri 8-10 Pereira
-
Cardio = Jiri 10-9 Pereira
-
Toughness = Jiri 10-10 Pereira
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Total = Jiri 2 - 2 Pereira.
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My pick = Jiri Prochazka. Even fight. I am going with Jiri as he is a natural 205 pounder in MMA and has already won the belt there. But you can also consider his injury and lay off and question if he will be the same.
- Similar minor concerns with both based on their last performance, both won because their older opponent got tired, but Jiri had the tougher task.
- I am not worried about either one's power or their ability to take punches, both are incredible at those things.
- Only big concern - I don't know how Jiri is going to deal with Pereira's leg kicks especially with his style, Pereira can absolutely destroy his leg in a single round, so that will be interesting to see.
- Even fight, Pereira's kicks and his accuracy vs Jiri's creativity and potentially grappling can be the deciding factor.