UFC 295: Procházka vs. Pereira

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@Noster75 

I am almost sure he has this feeling every morning/

@dianabanana 

Love the passion, that being said..... Lopes by first round submission.

That one is gonna be awesome Saba and Lopes should do a full grappling fight after to see who is better with more rules and no strikes!

My line of thinking is this: if Madsen can’t get a take down, he will almost surely lose. Gordon can get taken down and still win, I think that’s the difference maker. Madsen is 39, questionable cardio, fighting a more well rounded guy. I can see both sides, but all Gordon really needs to do is prevent takedowns, strike and wait for Madsen to wear himself out. Plus, it’s in his home town.

Madsen could steal rounds, though, so it depends on how good Gordon’s get up game is that night. 

Also, I know people will point to Madsen beating Guida as an example of his striking, but it’s the only guy he’s out struck in the UFC. Not really impressed with it, if I’m being honest. Guida is a good win, but he’s not a particularly dangerous striker and he himself has struggled with wrestlers he can’t take down.

Prove your picks are better than the rest join: https://www.tapology.com/fantasy/65997/players/new?code=0d35e2fb021c

Previous Winners: BLUBEARD x2, gem779, kushycake 

Madsen isn’t at fight ready anymore either. He left to go live in Denmark so his wife can get better care for her MS

That makes me a lot more confident in Jared Gordon

Procházka vs. Pereira
Alex Pereira, TKO, R2
It feel's as if there is ALOT of random baggage coming in with Jiri, whereas Pereira seems free, very Strickland like in a "be yourself" way. I think it resonates wildly but it takes a few. It looks shaky at first but Alex will decipher the movement, and lack of movement in some of areas of Jiri and capitalize. Flying Knee KO for Poatan after a feign hook.

Pavlovich vs. Aspinall
Tom Aspinall, SUB, R1
I think this has the potential to be a 5 round war, but I'll say the future rematch will be the war and this one ends with Tom Aspinall landing a slip uppercut dropping Sergei just enough for Aspinall to grab the back of Sergei and he does so incredibly quick. Ref steps in a little into the choke, due to the previous punch.

Andrade vs. Dern
Jéssica Andrade, DEC
29-28x2, 27-30 Split dec. I dont know, maybe I am too bias when it comes to Dern but it seems her fights are not like the others. I don't know if she succeeds at stifling others offenses and I am blind to it, but I lean that she is just not that great. I think Andrade stays away from danger and delivers damage in the process. Dern's constant takedowns, leg angling will have Andrade scrambling endlessly. Still a clear JA win.

Frevola vs. Saint-Denis
Matt Frevola, DEC
Steamrolla in a brawl. Gnarly, back and forth fight but Frevola will be the one revving the crowd up and standing in the center of the cage. 30-27x2, 29-28 Uni.

Sabatini vs. Lopes
Diego Lopes, DEC
29-28x2 I think Lopes is underrated and is going to be very ready for Sabatini's game. This has FOTN contender written on it, a bonus that should be increased twofold.

Erceg vs. Costa
Alessandro Costa, TKO, R2
Early round, Erceg is desperate for a leg while Alessandro times a perfect sprawl, brutal ground and pound ensues and fantastic defensive grappling from Costa on top as well. ground and pound finish when these strikes start to fade Erceg.

Ricci vs. Godinez
Lupita Godinez, DEC
Real tough, both fighters bloodied. 30-27, 29-28, 28-29 Split Dec for Loopy.

Rębecki vs. Roberts
Mateusz Rębecki, TKO, R1
Rebecki finds his range early, due to Roosevelt not establishing his. an uppercut to a hook KO's RR cold.

Sadykhov vs. Borshchev
Nazim Sadykhov, TKO, R1
Huge counter hook has Claus backpedaling. Nazim capitalizes with body shots and straights, TKO victory.

Gordon vs. Madsen
Jared Gordon, DEC
Split 29-28x2, 28-29 this time in favor of Gordon, but I think Madsen can make this a very boring, grinding fight.

Kang vs. Castañeda
Kyung Ho Kang, SUB, R2
late round arm triangle choke from top half guard.

Van vs. Borjas
Kevin Borjas, DEC
Borjas wins the first two rounds quite convincingly but fades hard in the third, little too late however for the judges. 29-28x3

Buzukja vs. Emmers
Dennis Buzukja, DEC
Gonna roll with the hometown guy, both coming off losses, Emmers albeit a much "better" L than DB's, but I'll trust the younger guy learning a ton in that in Woodson fight. 29-28x3 Uni.

Picking Borjas over Van is crazy to me. Van is actually really good, and Borjas just looked good on DWCS bc he fought someone not that great. The fights to stay away from betting on this card is Lopes vs. Sabatini and St.-Denis vs. Frevola. Odds are too close, and I truly believe that if those guys fought each other 10 times that the loser of the first fight would still manage to win at least 4 of them

Also, I missed this but does anyone know why Kang vs. Casteneda is at 138 instead of 135. Seems a little odd of a catchweight unless one person medically can't get past 138 which is still odd to be able to predict that specific weight

 Fight #1: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira

Winner Prediction: Jiri Prochazka

Winning Method Prediction: KO/TKO

Anticipated Round of Stoppage: Second Round

Confidence Percentage: 70%

Matchup Breakdown: Jiri Prochazka's striking skills and higher KO win percentage make him the favorite to win by KO/TKO.



Fight #2: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall

Winner Prediction: Tom Aspinall

Winning Method Prediction: Submission

Anticipated Round of Stoppage: First Round

Confidence Percentage: 65%

Matchup Breakdown: Tom Aspinall's well-rounded skills and grappling advantage give him an edge in this heavyweight bout.



Fight #3: Jessica Andrade vs. Mackenzie Dern

Winner Prediction: Jessica Andrade

Winning Method Prediction: Decision

Confidence Percentage: 60%

Matchup Breakdown: Jessica Andrade's experience and well-rounded skills favor her to win by decision.



Fight #4: Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint Denis

Winner Prediction: Benoit Saint Denis

Winning Method Prediction: Submission

Anticipated Round of Stoppage: Third Round

Confidence Percentage: 65%

Matchup Breakdown: Benoit Saint Denis' grappling skills and submission expertise make him the favorite to win by submission.



Fight #5: Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini

Winner Prediction: Diego Lopes

Winning Method Prediction: TKO/KO

Anticipated Round of Stoppage: First Round

Confidence Percentage: 55%

Matchup Breakdown: Considering Diego Lopes' ability to land significant strikes and the vulnerability Pat Sabatini has shown in previous fights, there's a possibility that Lopes can secure a TKO/KO victory.



Fight #6: Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa

Winner Prediction: Steve Erceg

Winning Method Prediction: Decision

Confidence Percentage: 65%

Matchup Breakdown: Steve Erceg's ability to control the fight and secure a decision win is the expected outcome.



Fight #7: Tabatha Ricci vs. Loopy Godinez

Winner Prediction: Loopy Godinez

Winning Method Prediction: Decision

Confidence Percentage: Approximately 55%

Matchup Breakdown: Loopy Godinez's balanced skills and potential for a decision victory are the key factors.



Fight #8: Mateusz Rebecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts

Winner Prediction: Mateusz Rebecki

Winning Method Prediction: TKO/KO

Round of Stoppage: Round 2

Confidence Percentage: 70%

Matchup Breakdown: Mateusz Rebecki's striking advantage and potential to exploit any fatigue or weight-cut-related issues in the later rounds give him the edge in this fight.



Fight #9: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Viacheslav Borshchev

Winner Prediction: Nazim Sadykhov

Winning Method Prediction: Decision

Confidence Percentage: 55%

Matchup Breakdown: Nazim Sadykhov's ability to secure takedowns and control the fight could give him the edge in this contest.

 

Fight #10: Jared Gordon vs. Mark Madsen

Winner Prediction: Mark Madsen

Winning Method Prediction: Decision

Confidence Percentage: 55%

Matchup Breakdown: Mark Madsen is likely to win by decision, given his higher decision win percentage and wrestling skills.



Fight #11: John Castaneda vs. Kyung Ho Kang

Winner Prediction: Kyung Ho Kang

Winning Method Prediction: Decision

Confidence Percentage: 60%

Matchup Breakdown: Kyung Ho Kang's well-rounded skills and likelihood of a decision win give him the advantage.



Fight #12: Joshua Van vs. Kevin Borjas

Winner Prediction: Joshua Van

Winning Method Prediction: KO/TKO

Round of Stoppage: Second Round

Confidence Percentage: 70%

Matchup Breakdown: Joshua Van's striking skills and KO potential favor him to win by KO/TKO in the second round.



Fight #13: Dennis Buzukja vs. Jamall Emmers 

Winner Prediction: Jamall Emmers 

Winning Method Prediction: Decision 

Confidence Percentage: 65% 

Matchup Breakdown: Jamall Emmers' striking and overall skills favor him to win by decision. 

* Edited at 11.09.2023, 11:00 PM ET *

This fight may be the best matchmaking of the year with someone outside of the rankings. I am a huge St. Denis fan and been saying he's special since he submitted Bonfim. The way he mixes up his attacks is very GSP-esque. His approach to MMA is very similar to Volk as well except I would say Volk's strength is kickboxing while BSD strength is BJJ and he's more of a boxer than a kickboxer

Madsen hasn't done anything in the past 3 years except beat 2 40 year old men in competitive fights that went to the judges and get dominated and finished by Grant Dawson. Gordon has looked much better than Madsen as of late in my opinion.

* Edited at 11.09.2023, 11:05 PM ET *

Don't want to be too optimistic, but I think this weekend has EOTY potential. So many competitive, exciting match ups. Even the more boring fights are interesting enough to be worth watching.

Gordon also has good grappling which seems to be what Madsen struggles against. He can't outwrestle dudes that know what they are doing, and Gordon's striking is underrated tbh. He kind of pieced up Pimblett for a round and a half and was competitive with Bobby Green

on this card the only locks are emmers and rebecki the rest is uncertain very good pairing

It’s going to be a shame that a lot of casuals are going to miss out on this amazing card because this card has no name value outside of the main event, This card has bangers and good matchup between fighter with less name on it, one of my most hype card of the year,I don’t want to jinx it but  I don’t think they’re any stinker on it beside Gordon vs Madson

* Edited at 11.09.2023, 11:45 PM ET *