UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Can you believe I got Strickland at +150 after the lines opened haha

You think Lawler Ko's Barbarena?

Interesting...I thought it would be an easy decision win for Bam Bam. I cant put any stock into Lawler beating a dad bod 2 brain cells left Nick Diaz.

I got Gamrot at +250 because everyone bet Arman last week, He's opening line was +120, That was insane value in a fight which I thought was close, And the fight played out as I thought

I'm mad I miss that Strickland line tho, Would of really added value

@ngannou tbf, I haven’t watched tape on it yet, just my initial lean but idk barberena doesn’t take punches as well imo. I think Robbie still hits decently hard 

Preciate the advice brother

Uriah Hall   vs.   André Muniz  


You know what? I'm going to take Hall here, and do so in the full knowledge that both Vegas and the Tapology great unwashed are against me.


Muniz is a very good fighter and a legitimate sub threat, but breaking down some stats, there's a very clear path to victory here for Hall. Hall's TDD is very solid at 65% against Muniz's TDA at 44% against fight5ers with mostly **** TDD, and Hall has faced grapplers and choke artists as good or better than Andre--shoeface, for example. He lands at a good clip (3.42) and while his stats indicates he eats a lot of strikes, you have to consider who he's fought when trying to apply meaning to that. He's fought killers. Muniz has a very good record, but he's really never beaten anyone good. He also gets tagged a LOT, especially by straights and jabs, which are Hall's forte. He's got a very porous guard, and his own striking is incredibly rudimentary and will be very, very easily read and countered by Uriah.


If this stays on the feet, Muniz is going to lose--and it well might. Watch Hall vs Shoeface.


I'm going to pick him as a dog here. I feel like this is closer to a pickem. Definitely wouldn't bet on Muniz in this spot even if you intend to fade Hall.


Uriah could hit a finish here, or a UD, pretty comfortably.


Hall, dec.

Brain says bam bam, heart says Robbie 

Thank you too. By the way, in addition to what you said about Cowboy. I think Cowboy is super motivated again to fight. He has been saying that he finally wants his son to see him fight and put on a good performance for him. That being said, I agree with your take on not cutting much weight for this fight. Cowboy will be the bigger fighter here and is used to fight as a Welterweight. I agree that he didn't look great in his last fights, but I think he found that fire back. After his Gaethje loss he lost his motivation and also talked about having a hard time. I'm taking a bit of a gamble picking Cowboy here, but I think he can pull it off. Especially since Miller is not used to fight at Welterweight. I don't mind taking an L if Miller does win. 

That being said, I wonder what the UFC will do if Miller wins. Since that would mean he's on a solid fighting streak.

* Edited at 06.27.2022, 6:15 PM ET *

@baldric

Congratulations for not making it to top 1000 leaderboard in 13 ufc events in a row 👌

* Edited at 06.27.2022, 6:17 PM ET *

@Fremen best I've ever gone is second for UFC.

Not on this account. On Fishrat.

Kind of stopped caring about my overall % and started picking dogs, pretty much the only part of this process that's entertaining for me these days.

Still haven't won my own dog comp though.

Damn I didn’t know cowboy vs miller is at 170, that definitely changes things

Well actually idk, cowboy is still cutting weight 3 times in a month (albeit, less here) and got chinned in his last fight at 170 so the chin is definitely gone and suspect here. I don’t really like miller at 170 tho 

Yeah for sure...I'm still going to lean Miller..Cowboy does not appear to be the same guy.

@Fremen also congrats on having an accuracy percentage less than what you'd get by picking the favourite every card.

I can't believe you still care about any of this.

Morono did stop him pretty easily at 170 that’s the last time I remember cowboy at 170 Jim miller has just been on a roll that’s why I’m alittle more confident in him

Oddsbot's picking percentage is boosted because he skips close fights